Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Poker AA,KK,QQ,JJ pairs winning rate

This is my first post regarding my view towards various poker hands. My first post was reserved specifically for so called "big" pairs: AA,KK,QQ,JJ,1010 because recently with the help of these big pairs i got my pot size pumped up faster than i could imagine. JJ pairs got my pot size doubled up yesterday and QQ increase another 50% of my pot size today=)

How should i view this kind of "big" pairs? And how should i play with this kind of hand?
From what i observed so far(from fb texas table),most ppl tend to go all in at the pre-flop play,2nd many ppl will just check or raise a little bit as if this is just something like J9,K10,JK,JQ,A10..etc.

1st type play is the most common play,for the obvious reason: get as few opponents playing the round as possible,thus increasing the chance of winning. It is not usual to have ppl call the all-in with hand like 56,78,108,suited or flush etc..hands like 66,77,99,smart player will usually fold it depends on the pot size. Mathematically,it is kind of waste if there are 5-6 ppl calling your "big pairs",and your chance stand at 20-30% something,thanks to the vital straight,flush or 2 pairs they could have. The things change if you filtered out those "black horse". Statistically,someone can win with AA with 2-3 opponents only at chance of 40-45%. Considering you knock the opponent with all-ins, what tend to left over is hands like A10,AK,AJ,J10,KJ,QJ etc(something with minimum 10 as the small card).So the chance of winning can easily shoot up to 50-60% as you have taken away some of the card they are waiting for to get the straight/2 pairs! Conclusion? Statistic/poker calculator can hardly cover the human behaviour(posterior probability after the human normal instinct)as it is not programmable,it is from personal judgement. What it helps is to get the expected value for the bet right over the time =)For very long time,i always feels that all-in is the best "solution" to play these "big" pairs for some cute reason: they "should" be valued at this level, and it takes no regret because it wont earn me less than payoff from all-in! if i get kicked off after all-in,i can just blame that it is fated! AA also die,AK also cant win,AA also lose to 56 ..etc ..is not a fresh things to all of us i believe =)
Matured player will get a lot of lesson from the word "should",and start to perceive things differently...

2nd play is common too...old way of making chips,hoping to catch aggressive+reckless players. Thinking of seducing opponents to raise them and re-raise re-raise and all-ins them... this could easily got them trapped by the word "should"...my hand should get them finished off if I re-raise them and all-in them! there should be someone raise me if i check them...they should think my hand weakly and off their guard if i just check or think my hand only something normal like J10,J8 etc if i raise like normal...hehe..you just havent met the pros!(like me =D jkjk) what should i do if they keep checking me? all-in at river? of course they will just fold =) TOO OBVIOUS! Of course emotion get affected.cant win worthy pot with worthy hands..AA,JJ,QQ also cant win much,not to mention 99,88,k10...etc...confidence level drop drop drop drop drop....

Something is missing for the 2nd play!! ---------> kiLLer instinCt!!
Anyway..there is always no right or wrong for every style of playing. Just to share my experience in paragraph 1...
yesterday won with QQ with just a simple move: raise 3x-4x of my normal raise at pre-flop,e.g: in 1k/2k blind table,my normal raise is 6k-8k,den 3x become 18k-24k,4x become 24k-32k..then suddenly 3-4 ppl with hands like A2,56,J8,KQ all-ins me = ='' the atmosphere was really hot and thx to those aggressively playing idiot ppl =) of course i was lucky to have those ppl playing same table with me ..
today won with JJ,by raising 2x of my normal raise...something similar happen...except that their hands are nicer compared to ytd..forgot what hand dy =p..
last hand was the luckiest of the day! full house own 2 flush,1 straight,1 pairs,1 two pairs players,pot size won was the whopping 1.4M in one round!!

Most importantly is this happen before she add me...which was something emotionally dangerous+risky..as expected...in a relationship..what worse is......he doesnt look as yongsui as i thought earlier...arghhh...thx to my rationale and some songs...i am able to get myself controlled and stop playing poker..before something really bad happen to my chips..like last time..due to same reason...

song playing:
特别的爱给特别的你

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